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Seasonal Influences in Australian Housing Markets

Author/s: Greg Costello

Date Published: 1/01/2001

Published in: Volume 7 - 2001 Issue 1 (pages 47 - 60)

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of seasonal influences on housing market activity. Empirical tests examine the influence of a quarterly season on the demand for housing and the observed real house price changes. Empirical tests are specifically designed for a ‘short’ time-series, 1988-95. The explanatory power of the statistical tests is improved by ‘stacking’ regional data to perform more robust tests for seasonality. The results confirm significant seasonal influences. The volume of transactions and hence demand is greatest during the first quarter of a year and lowest during the last quarter. The observed real house price changes are highest in the first quarter of a year and lowest during the third quarter.

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Keywords

House Price Index - Housing Markets - Seasonal Demand - Seasonal Price Change - Seasonality

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