Strategies Deployed to Deal with Black Swan Events: A Qualitative Assessment of Quantitative Easing and the Australian Housing M
Author/s: Peng Yew Wong, Kingsley Tetteh Baako, Kwabena Mintah, Gideon Kwame Otchere, Woon-Weng Wong
Date Published: 18/11/2024
Published in: Volume 29 - 2024 Issue 2 (pages 1 - 29)
Abstract
Black Swan Events (BSEs) are those unplanned events that significantly and negatively impact various aspects of human life. The COVID-19 pandemic and the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) in 2008 have been considered by many as BSE in recent times. During these events, governments usually implement policies to assuage the impact on various sectors of the economy and the populace. This paper identified some strategies and policies adopted by the Australian government during the COVID-19 pandemic, especially the QE monetary policy and their impact on the housing market from the perspective of stakeholders in the industry. A qualitative research method was used to solicit information from respondents. A thematic analysis was employed to unravel the government’s fiscal policies and the QE monetary policy as responsible for mitigating the effects of BSE. These policies sought to, among other reasons, keep interest rates low and keep money in the economy to revive the ailing economy. The findings revealed that the BSEs affected the Australian economy in multiple ways. We also found that the conventional and unconventional policy strategies deployed in response to the BSEs in Australia were impacting the Australian housing market in varying significance manner.
Download Full Article
Download the Full Article PDFStrategies-deployed-to-deal-with-black-swan-events-A-qualitative-assessment-of-quantitative-easing-and-the-Australian-housing-market.pdf (481kB) |
Keywords
Australia. - Black Swan Events - Housing Market - Quantitative EasingReferences
- Abelson, P., Joyeux, R., Milunovich, G., & Chung, D. (2005). Explaining house prices in Australia:
- 1970–2003. Economic Record, 81(1), S96-S103. doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-4932.2005.00243.x
- Adalid, R., & Detken, C. (2007). Liquidity shocks and asset price boom/bust cycles. ECB Working
- Paper Series, 732, Frankfurt.
- Ali, G., & Zaman, K. (2017). Do house prices influence stock prices? Empirical investigation from
- the panel of selected European Union countries. Economic Research, 30(1), 1840-1849, doi:
- 10.1080/1331677X.2017.
- Australian Bureau of Statistics 2022, Economic gains and losses over the COVID-19 pandemic,
- ABS, viewed 4 September 2024, https://www.abs.gov.au/articles/economic-gains-andlosses-over-covid-19-pandemic
- Aven, T. (2013). On the meaning of a black swan in a risk context. Safety Science, 57, 44-
- 51.doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2013.01.016.
- Baharumshah, A. Z., Soon, S.-V., & Lau, E. (2017). Fiscal sustainability in an emerging market
- economy: When does public debt turn bad? Journal of Policy Modelling, 39(1), 99-113.
- doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2016.11.002.
- Baker, E., Bentley, R., Beer, A. and Daniel, L. (2020) Renting in the time of COVID-19:
- understanding the impacts, AHURI Final Report No. 340, Australian Housing and Urban
- Research Institute Limited, Melbourne, https://www.ahuri.edu.au/research/finalreports/340, doi: 10.18408/ahuri3125401.
- Batayneh, K. I., & Al-Malki, A. M. (2015). The relationship between house prices and stock prices
- in Saudi Arabia: An empirical analysis. International Journal of Economics and Finance,
- 7(2), 156-167. doi:10.5539/ijef.v7n2p156
- Bauer, M., & Rudebusch, G. D. (2014). The signalling channel for Federal Reserve bond purchases.
- International Journal of Central Banking, 10, 233–89.
- Bernanke, B. S., Gertler, M., & Gilchrist, S. (1999). The financial accelerator in a quantitative
- business cycle framework. Handbook of Macroeconomics, 1, 1341-1393.
- Bjørnland, H. C., & Jacobsen, D. H. (2010). The role of house prices in the monetary policy
- transmission mechanism in small open economies. Journal of Financial Stability, 6(4), 218-
- 229, doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2010.02.001.
- Blanchard, O., & GalÃ, J. (2010). Labor markets and monetary policy: A new Keynesian model
- with unemployment. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2(2), 1-30. DOI:
- 10.1257/mac.2.2.1.
- Bordo, M. D., & Haubrich, J. G. (2010). Credit crises, money and contractions: An historical view.
- Journal of Monetary Economics, 57(1), 1-18. doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2009.10.015.
- Borio, C. E., & Lowe, P. W. (2004). Securing sustainable price stability: should credit come back
- from the wilderness? BIS Working Paper, 157.
- Braun V and Clarke V (2006). Using thematic analysis in psychology. Qualitative Research in
- Psychology, 3 (2), pp. 77–101, doi: 10.1191/1478088706qp063oa
- Cesa-Bianchi, A., Cespedes, L. F., & Rebucci, A. (2015). Global liquidity, house prices, and the
- macroeconomy: Evidence from advanced and emerging economies. Journal of Money,
- Credit and Banking, 47(S1), 301-335. doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12204.
- Chen, M.-C., Tsai, I.-C., & Chang, C.-O. (2007). House prices and household income: Do they
- move apart? Evidence from Taiwan. Habitat International, 31(2), 243-256.
- doi.org/10.1016/j.habitatint.2007.02.005.
- Chen, Y., Gibb, K., Leishman, C., & Wright, R. (2012). The Impact of Population Ageing on House
- Prices: A Micro-simulation Approach. Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 59(5), 523-
- 542 doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9485.2012.00593.x.
- Cho, D., & Rhee, C. (2013). Effects of quantitative easing on Asia: capital flows and financial
- markets. Asian Development Bank Economics Working Paper Series,350.
- Coronavirus Australia: Property prices forecast to dip up to 10 per cent before rallying,
- https://www.9news.com.au/national/coronavirus-australia-property-market-set-to-dipby-up-to-10-per-cent/09acac1a-ebe5-4ae9-bbf6-e36d05f7ae36
- Corelogic (2022) Two years on: Six ways COVID-19 has shaped the housing market, Property
- Pulse, accessed 1 September 2024. https://www.corelogic.com.au/newsresearch/news/2022/two-years-on-six-ways-covid-19-has-shaped-the-housing-market
- Creswell, J. (2014). Research design: Qualitative, Quantitative and Mixed method approaches (3rd
- ed.). Thousand Oaks, California: Sage Publications.
- Day, C. (2018). Population and house prices in the United Kingdom. Scottish Journal of Political
- Economy, 65(2), 127-141. doi.org/10.1111/sjpe.12166.
- Demary, M. (2010). The interplay between output, inflation, interest rates and house prices:
- international evidence. Journal of Property Research, 27(1), 1-17.
- doi.org/10.1080/09599916.2010.499015.
- Elbourne, A. (2008). The UK housing market and the monetary policy transmission mechanism:
- An SVAR approach. Journal of Housing Economics, 17(1), 65-87.
- doi.org/10.1016/j.jhe.2007.09.002.
- Ferrero, A. (2015). House price booms, current account deficits, and low interest rates. Journal of
- Money, Credit and Banking, 47(S1), 261-293. doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12202.
- Filipa, S. (2015). Immigration and House Prices in the UK. The Economic Journal, 125(587), 1393-
- 1424. https://doi.org/doi:doi:10.1111/ecoj.12158.
- Gerdesmeier, D., Reimers, H. E., & Roffia, B. (2010). Asset price misalignments and the role of
- money and credit. International Finance, 13(3), 377-407. doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-
- 2362.2010.01272.x
- Gibbs, G. R. (2007) Analysing qualitative data. In U. Flick (Ed.), The Sage qualitative research kit.
- Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage
- Gimeno, R., & Martinez-Carrascal, C. (2010). The relationship between house prices and house
- purchase loans: The Spanish case. Journal of Banking & Finance, 34(8), 1849-1855.
- Gonzalez, L., & Ortega, F. (2013). Immigration and housing booms: Evidence from Spain. Journal
- of Regional Science, 53(1), 37-59. doi.org/10.1111/jors.12010.
- Goodhart, C., & Hofmann, B. (2008). House prices, money, credit, and the macroeconomy. Oxford
- review of economic policy, 24(1), 180-205.
- Greenwood, J. (2017). Interest representation in the European Union. Bloomsbury Publishing.
- Guan, Q., OÂ’Donnell, J., & Raymer, J. (2024). Changes in International Migration to and from
- Australia During the COVID-19 Pandemic. International Migration
- Review, 0(0). https://doi.org/10.1177/01979183241249967
- Guest, G., MacQueen, K. M. & Namey, E. E. (2012) Applied thematic analysis. Thousand Oaks, CA:
- Sage
- Gunn, C. M. (2018). Overaccumulation, interest, and prices. Journal of Money, Credit and
- Banking, 50(2-3), 479-511.
- Higgins, D., & Perera, T. (2020). Learning to live with extreme risk (part 1 and 2). The Property
- Chronicle.
- Hilber, C. A., & Vermeulen, W. (2016). The impact of supply constraints on house prices in
- England. The Economic Journal, 126(591), 358-405, doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12213.
- Housing prices could plunge by 20 per cent in a coronavirus recession,
- https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/property/2020/03/20/coronavirus-housing-market/
- Huber, F., & Punzi, M. T. (2020). International housing markets, unconventional monetary policy,
- and the zero lower bound. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 24(4), 774-806,
- doi.org/10.1017/S1365100518000494.
- Ibrahim, M. H. (2010). House price-stock price relations in Thailand: an empirical analysis.
- International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, 3(1), 68-82,
- doi.org/10.1108/17538271011027096.
- Ibrahim, M. S. (2007). An overview on disasters. Disaster prevention and management, 16(5), 687-
- 704.
- Irandoust, M. (2019). House prices and unemployment: an empirical analysis of causality.
- International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, 12(1), 148-164,
- doi.org/10.1108/IJHMA-03-2018-0021.
- Ito, T., & Mishkin, F. S. (2006). Two decades of Japanese monetary policy and the deflation
- problem. In Monetary policy with very low inflation in the pacific rim 131-202. University
- of Chicago Press.
- Jarocinski, M., & Smets, F. (2008). House prices and the stance of monetary policy. ECB Working
- Paper, 891.
- Johnson, R. B., & Onwuegbuzie, A. J. (2004). Mixed methods research: a research paradigm whose
- time has come. Educational Researcher, 33(7), 14-26. doi.org/10.3102/0013189X033007014
- Jordà , Ò., Schularick, M., & Taylor, A. M. (2015). Betting the house. Journal of international
- economics, 96, S2-S18.
- Kelly, R., McCann, F., & OÂ’Toole, C. (2018). Credit conditions, macroprudential policy and house
- prices. Journal of Housing Economics, 41, 153-167, doi.org/10.1016/j.jhe.2018.05.005.
- Lastrapes, W. D. (2002). The real price of housing and money supply shocks: time series evidence
- and theoretical simulations. Journal of Housing Economics, 11(1), 40-74.
- Leamer, E. E. (2015). Housing really is the business cycle: what survives the lessons of 2008–09?
- Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 47(S1), 43-50. doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12189.
- Leech, N. L. and Onwuegbuzie, A. J. (2007). An array of qualitative data analysis tools: A call for
- data analysis triangulation. School Psychology Quarterly, 22(4), 557–584.
- Leishman, C., Aminpour, F., Baker, E., Beer, A., Crowe, A., Goodall, Z., Horton, E., Jacobs, K.,
- Lester, L., Torchia, S., Maclennan, D., Martin, C., Nash, M., Pawson, H., Rowley, S., Stone,
- W. and Ong ViforJ, R. (2022) AustraliaÂ’s COVID-19 pandemic housing policy responses,
- AHURI Final Report No. 376, Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute Limited,
- Melbourne, https://www.ahuri.edu.au/research/final-reports/376, doi:
- 10.18408/ahuri3227801.
- Li, Q., & Chand, S. (2013). House prices and market fundamentals in urban China. Habitat
- International, 40, 148-153. doi.org/10.1016/j.habitatint.2013.04.002.
- Mandelbrot, B. B., & Taleb, N. N. (2010). Mild vs. wild randomness: Focusing on risks that matter.
- In F. X. Diebold, N. A. Doherty, & R. J. Herring (Eds.), The Known, the Unknown, and the
- Unknowable in Financial Risk Management: Measurement and Theory Advancing
- Practice, 57-58 Princeton: Princeton University Press.
- McCarthy, J., & Peach, R. W. (2002). Monetary policy transmission to residential investment.
- Economic Policy Review, 8(1), 139-158.
- Meltzer, A. H. (1995). Monetary, credit and (other) transmission processes: a monetarist
- perspective. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 9(4), 49-72.doi: 10.1257/jep.9.4.49
- Mertens, K., & Ravn, M. O. (2013). The dynamic effects of personal and corporate income tax
- changes in the United States. American economic review, 103(4), 1212-1247.
- Miles, D., & Monro, V. (2021). UK house prices and three decades of decline in the risk-free real
- interest rate. Economic Policy, 36(108), 627-684. doi.org/10.1093/epolic/eiab006.
- Mintah, K., Baako, K.T., Kavaarpuo, G. and Otchere, G.K. (2020). Skin lands in Ghana and
- application of blockchain technology for acquisition and title registration. Journal of
- Property, Planning and Environmental Law, https://doi.org/10.1108/JPPEL-12-2019-0062
- Mintah, K., Boateng, F. G., Baako, K. T., Gaisie, E., & Otchere, G. K. (2021). Blockchain on stool
- land acquisition: Lessons from Ghana for strengthening land tenure security other than
- titling. Land Use Policy, 109, 105635.
- Mishkin, F. (2007). Money, banking and financial markets. New Horizons, Paris, France.
- Musso, A., Neri, S., & Stracca, L. (2011). Housing, consumption and monetary policy: How
- different are the US and the euro area? Journal of Banking & Finance, 35(11), 3019-3041.
- Nafday, A. M. (2009). Strategies for managing the consequences of black swan events. Leadership
- and Management in Engineering, 9(4), 191-197.
- O'Leary, Z. (2014). The essential guide to doing your research project. London: Sage.
- Otchere, G.K., Mintah, K. & Callanan, J. (2023) Drivers of gated community developments in
- Ghana: perspective of developers. Property Management, DOI: 10.1108/PM-01-2022-0006
- Özmen, M. U., Kalafatcılar, M. K., & Yılmaz, E. (2019). The impact of income distribution on house
- prices. Central Bank Review, 19(2), 45-58.
- PropTrack (2024). Home Price Index. PropTrack insights. https://www.proptrack.com.au/homeprice-index/
- Rahal, C. (2016). Housing markets and unconventional monetary policy. Journal of Housing
- Economics, 32, 67-80.
- Rahman, M. M. (2010). The Australian housing market–understanding the causes and effects of
- rising prices. Policy Studies, 31(5), 577-590.
- Ramcharan, R., & Crowe, C. (2013). The impact of house prices on consumer credit: evidence from
- an internet bank. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 45(6), 1085-1115.
- Robson, C. (2002). Real world research: A resource for social scientists and practitionerresearchers (2nd ed.). Oxford, UK: Madden, Mass: Blackwell.
- Robstad, Ø. (2018). House prices, credit and the effect of monetary policy in Norway: evidence
- from structural VAR models. Empirical Economics, 54(2), 461-483.
- Rudebusch, G. D., & Williams, J. C. (2008). Revealing the secrets of the temple: The value of
- publishing central bank interest rate projections. In Asset Prices and Monetary Policy
- University of Chicago Press, 247-289.doi.org/10.7208/9780226092126
- Ryczkowski, M. (2021). Money and inflation in inflation-targeting regimes–new evidence from
- time–frequency analysis. Journal of Applied Economics, 24(1), 17-44.
- Sá, F., & Wieladek, T. (2015). Capital inflows and the US housing boom. Journal of Money, Credit
- and Banking, 47(S1), 221-256.
- Simo-Kengne, B. D. (2019). Population aging, unemployment and house prices in South Africa.
- Journal of Housing and the Built Environment, 34(1), 153-174.
- Stock, J. H., & Watson, M. W. (2012). Generalized shrinkage methods for forecasting using many
- predictors. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 30(4), 481-493.
- Su, C.-W., Yin, X.-C., Chang, H.-L., & Zhou, H.-G. (2019). Are the stock and real estate markets
- integrated in China? Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, 14(4), 741-760.
- Taleb, N. N. (2005). Fooled by randomness: The hidden role of chance in life and in the markets
- (2nd ed. Vol. 1). New York: Random House Inc.
- Taleb, N. N. (2008). The Black swan: The impact of the highly improbable. London: Penguin.
- Teddlie, C., & Tashakkori, A. (2009). Foundations of mixed methods research: Integrating
- quantitative and qualitative approaches in the social and behavioral sciences. Sage.
- Treasury of Australia (2021) Economic Responses to Coronavirus: Payment, Australian
- Government, Canberra, accessed 10th August, 2022,
- https://treasury.gov.au/coronavirus/jobkeeper
- Treasury of Australia (2021) Economic Responses to Coronavirus: Home Builder, Australian
- Government, Canberra, accessed 12th May, 2021,
- https://treasury.gov.au/coronavirus/homebuilder
- Turner, B. A., & Pidgeon, N. F. (1997). Man-made disasters: Butterworth-Heinemann.
- Uhlig, H. (2005). What are the effects of monetary policy on output? Results from an agnostic
- identification procedure. Journal of Monetary Economics, 52(2), 381-419.
- doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2004.05.007.
- Vaismoradi, M., Turunen, H. and Bondas, T. (2013). Content analysis and thematic analysis:
- Implications for conducting a qualitative descriptive study. Nursing & Health Sciences,
- 15 (3), pp. 398-405.
- Vargas-Silva, C. (2008). Monetary policy and the US housing market: A VAR analysis imposing
- sign restrictions. Journal of Macroeconomics, 30(3), 977-990.
- doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2007.07.004.
- Wang, J., Koblyakova, A., Tiwari, P., & Croucher, J. S. (2019). Is the Australian housing market in
- a bubble? International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, 13(1), 77-95.
- Wong, P. Y., Wong, W.-W., & Mintah, K. (2020). Residential property market determinants:
- evidence from the 2018 Australian market downturn. Property Management, 38(2), 157-
- 175.
- Wong, P.Y., Wong, W.W., Baako, K.T. and Mintah, K. (2022). Quantitative Easing and the
- Australian Housing Market. In Proceedings from the 2022 Pacific Rim Real Estate Society
- (PRRES) Conference, Online Virtual, Australia, 19 January 2022.
- Xu, T. (2017). The relationship between interest rates, income, GDP growth and house prices.
- Research in Economics and Management, 2(1), 30-37.
- Yin, R. (2003). Applications of case study research (applied social research methods) (4th ed.).
- Thousand Oaks: California: Sage Publications.
- Zhou, Z., & Zhang, A. (2021). High-speed rail and industrial developments: Evidence from house
- prices and city-level GDP in China. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice,
- 149, 98-113.