Long-Term Benefits from Investing in Asia-Pacific Real Estate

Author/s: Felix Schindler

Date Published: 1/01/2009

Published in: Volume 15 - 2009 Issue 3 (pages 335 - 357)

Abstract

This paper analyses long- and short-term co-movements between Asia-Pacific real estate markets and the real estate markets in the U.K. and the U.S. based on bivariate testing for cointegration and correlation analysis. The results indicate that there exist strong long-term relationships between Asia-Pacific real estate markets, while investors located in Asia would benefit from broadening their investment horizon to Australia, Europe, and the U.S. For international investors from the U.S. and the U.K., there exist long-term opportunities to diversify across the Asia-Pacific real estate markets.

Download Full Article

Download the Full Article PDF

14445921.2009.11104285.pdf 14445921.2009.11104285.pdf (316kB)

Keywords

Cointegration - Correlation Analysis - Diversification - Securitized Asia-Pacific Real Estate

References

  • Bond, S.A., Karolyi, G.A. and Sanders, A.B. (2003), International Real Estate Returns: A Multifactor, Multicountry Approach, Real Estate Economics, 31(3), 481-500.
  • Brounen, D. and Eichholtz, P.M.A. (2003), Property, Common Stock, and Property Stock - Increased Potential for Diversification, Journal of Portfolio Management, 30 (Special Issue), 129-137.
  • Brounen, D., Prado, M.P. and Stevenson, S. (2008), Kurtosis and Consequences - the Case of International Property Shares, SSRN Working Paper.
  • Cheng, P. and Roulac, S.E. (2007), Measuring the Effectiveness of Geographical Diversification, Journal of Real Estate Portfolio Management, 13(1), 29-44.
  • Conover, C.M., Friday, H.S. and Sirmans, G.S. (2002), Diversification Benefits from Foreign Real Estate Investments, Journal of Real Estate Portfolio Management, 8(1), 17-25.
  • Dickey, D.A. and Fuller, W.A. (1981), Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root, Econometrica, 49(4), 1057-1072.
  • Enders, W. (2004), Applied Econometric Time Series, 2 Edition, Hoboken/New York.
  • Engle, R.F. and Granger, C.W.J. (1987), Co-Integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing, Econometrica, 55(2), 251-276.
  • Engle, R.F. and Granger, C.W.J. (1991), Long-Run Economic Relationships - Readings in Cointegration, Oxford et al.
  • EPRA (2008), EPRA Global REIT Survey - A Comparison of the Major REIT Regimes around the World, Amsterdam.
  • Fugazza, C., Guidolin, M. and Nicodano, G. (2007): Investing for the Long-run in European Real Estate, Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 34(1), 35-80.
  • Fugazza, C., Guidolin, M. and Nicodano, G. (2008), Diversifying in Public Real Estate: The Ex-post Performance, Journal of Asset Management, 8(6), 361-373.
  • Fugazza, C., Guidolin, M. and Nicodano, G. (2009), Time and Risk Diversification in Real Estate Investments: Assessing the Ex Post Economic Value, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper 2009-001A.
  • Garvey, R., Santry, G. and Stevenson, S. (2001), The Linkages between Real Estate Securities in the Asia-Pacific, Pacific Rim Property Research Journal, 7(4), 240-258.
  • Hoesli, M. and Serrano, C. (2008), Are Securitized Real Estate Returns More Predictable than Stock Returns?, Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper 08-27.
  • Idzorek, T.M., Barad, M. and Meier, S.L. (2007), Global Commercial Real Estate - A Strategic Asset Allocation Study, Journal of Portfolio Management, 33(Special Issue), 37-52.
  • Jin, C., Grissom, T.V. and Ziobrowski, A.J. (2007), The Mixed Asset Portfolio for Asia-Pacific Markets, Journal of Real Estate Portfolio Management, 13(3), 249-256.
  • Johansen, S. (1988), Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12(2/3), 231-254.
  • Liow, K.H. (1997), The Historical Performance of Singapore Property Stocks, Journal of Property Finance, 8(2), 111-125.
  • Liow, K.H. (2007), The Dynamics of Return Volatility and Systematic Risk in International Real Estate Security Markets, Journal of Property Research, 24(1), 1-29.
  • Liow, K.H. and Adair, A. (2009), Do Asian Real Estate Companies Add Value to Investment Portfolio?, Journal of Property Investment & Finance, 27(1), 42-64.
  • Liow, K.H. and Sim, M.C. (2006), The Risk and Return Profile of Asian Real Estate Stocks, Pacific Rim Property Research Journal, 12(3), 283-310.
  • Liow, K.H., Ooi, J. and Gong, Y. (2005), Cross-Market Dynamics in Property Stock Markets - Some International Evidence, Journal of Property Investment and Finance, 23(1), 55-75.
  • Liow, K.H., Ho, K.H.D., Ibrahim, M.F. and Chen, Z. (2009): Correlation and Volatility Dynamics in International Real Estate Securities Markets, Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 39(2), 202-223.
  • MacKinnon, J.G. (1991), Critical Values for Cointegration Tests, in: Engle, R.F. and Granger, C.W.J. (eds.), Long-Run Economic Relationships - Readings in Cointegration, New York et al., 267-276.
  • MacKinnon, J.G. (1996), Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 11(6), 601-618.
  • MacKinnon, J.G., Haug, A.A. and Michelis, L. (1999), Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 14(5), 563-577.
  • Markowitz, H.M. (1952), Portfolio Selection, The Journal of Finance, 7(1), 77-91.
  • Newell, G. and Chau, K.W. (1996), Linkages between Direct and Indirect Property Performance in Hong Kong, Journal of Property Finance, 7(4), 9-29.
  • Ng, S. and Perron, P. (1995), Unit Root Tests in ARMA Models with Data-Dependent Methods for the Selection of the Truncation Lag, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 90(429), 268-281.
  • Ooi, J.T.L. and Liow, K.H. (2004): Risk-Adjusted Performance of Real Estate Stocks: Evidence from Developing Markets, Journal of Real Estate Research, 26(4), 371-395.
  • Ooi, J.T.L., Newell, G. and Sing, T.-F. (2006), The Growth of REIT Markets in Asia, Journal of Real Estate Literature, 14(2), 203-222.
  • Phillips, P.C.B. and Perron, P. (1988), Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression, Biometrika, 75(2), 335-346.
  • Said, S.E. and Dickey, D.A. (1984), Testing for Unit Roots in Autoregressive-Moving Average Models of Unknown Order, Biometrika, 71(3), 599-607.
  • Sirmans, C.F. and Worzala, E. (2003), International Direct Real Estate Investment: A Review of the Literature, Urban Studies, 40(5/6), 1081-1114.
  • Steinert, M. and Crowe, S. (2001), Global Real Estate Investment: Characteristics, Optimal Portfolio Allocation and Future Trends, Pacific Rim Property Research Journal, 7(4), 223-239.
  • Urzúa, C.M. (1996), On the Correct Use of Omnibus Tests for Normality, Economic Letters, 53(3), 247-251.
  • Waggle, D. and Agrrawal, P. (2006), The Stock-REIT Relationship and Optimal Asset Allocation, Journal of Real Estate Portfolio Management, 12(3), 209-221.
  • Worzala, E. and Sirmans, C.F. (2003), Investing in International Real Estate Stocks: A Review of the Literature, Urban Studies, 40(5/6), 1115-1149.
  • Yang, J., Kolari, J.W. and Zhu, G. (2005): European Public Real Estate Market Integration, Applied Financial Economics, 15(13), 895-905.
  • Yat-Hung, C., Joinkey, S.C.-K. and Bo-Sin, T. (2008), Time-Varying Performance of Four Asia-Pacific REITs, Journal of Property Investment and Finance, 26(3), 210-231.