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The Accuracy of Commercial Property Forecasting in Australia

Author/s: Graeme Newell, John MacFarlane

Date Published: 1/01/2006

Published in: Volume 12 - 2006 Issue 3 (pages 311 - 325)

Abstract

Commercial property forecasting is an important component within a property investment strategy. Using the Australian Property Institute’s “Australian Property Directions Survey”, this six-monthly survey amongst independent commercial property forecasters in Australia is used to compare commercial property forecasts with actual commercial property performance to assess the accuracy of commercial property forecasting in Australia over 1999-2005. The accuracy of this commercial property forecasting is also benchmarked against a number of alternative naive property forecasting strategies to assess the “added-value” of commercial property forecasting in Australia.

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Keywords

Accuracy - Api Property Sentiment Survey - Commercial Property Forecasting - Forecast Versus Actual Performance - Naïve Property Forecasting Strategies - Optimistic Forecasts

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